Monday, March 29, 2010

Philippine Stocks March 29. 2009

Again, another flat day for the Philippine market. Volume has been thin as well. The market has been trading on the sub-1 million shares for a few days now and this can be due to the upcoming long vacation. I believe that the market will now consolidate between 3100 and 3150 within the next 10 trading days with resistance being set at the 3200 level.

The 3200 resistance is important since at this level, we are just around 5% shy of the PSEI's all time high of above 3400 that was registered during the 3rd quarter of 2007.

Traders might also want to cash in to lock in some gains before the close on wednesday as there will be much uncertainty during the very long weekend.

My personal picks right now include JGS and URC. They have made a good run but are still dirt cheap. URC is still trading around 10x future earnings while JGS is still at 8x earnings. I'm overweight with Gokongwei stocks right now and will try to pare down in the next few weeks

PNB is also starting to make a move. This is a classic Buffet stock which is presently waaaaay undervalued. With my last computations, I think that this is trading about half it's book and fair value.

The sleeping giant, BPI, well.... it's still sleeping. But the improvement in the over-all economic picture should benefit BPI which I would expect to move sideways (46-48) until the week after easter. However, the dividend ex-date announcement may just prove to be the jolt to end the slumber.

Trans-asia oil (TA) is taking a breather and this might be a good time to accumulate the stock. At the present price it is still trading at around 6-8x future earnings, and should benefit from the rise in oil prices.


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